Goodhart's Law and the fifty terrible leads

We propose describing work by what it delivers: "fifty qualified leads a month" rather than "a marketing executive". It's clearer, easier to compare and easier to buy. It's also easy to game.

When a measure becomes a target

In 1975 the economist Charles Goodhart observed that a statistical relationship tends to break once it is used as a target for control; his case was monetary policy. The version people quote, usually credited to the anthropologist Marilyn Strathern (1997), is shorter: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Paying people to hit a number is the everyday case. Pay for fifty leads and you'll get fifty. Whether any of them buy is another matter.

Three ways it goes wrong

• The definition narrows: a "qualified" lead becomes anyone who opened an email.
• The cost moves: sales now spends hours sifting, and that cost appears nowhere.
• The record looks perfect: fifty delivered, every month, while results fall.

What might help (still hypotheses)

• Measure the next step too: how many leads became meetings.
• Let the buyer check a sample, and mark that claim as verified.
• Record failures on the card, not just successes.
• Version the definition: changing what "qualified" means creates a new version, visibly.

Sources. Goodhart, C. A. E. (1975, publ. 1976). Problems of monetary management: the U.K. experience. Papers in Monetary Economics, Vol. I, Reserve Bank of Australia; reprinted in Monetary Theory and Practice (1984), pp. 91–121, doi:10.1007/978-1-349-17295-5_4 (original not yet read). Strathern, M. (1997). ‘Improving ratings’: audit in the British University system. European Review, 5(3), 305–321 (abstract only; the popular wording is commonly credited to it). Manheim, D., & Garrabrant, S. (2018). Categorizing variants of Goodhart's Law. arXiv:1803.04585 (read; gives Goodhart's original wording).

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Where this leads

Where this is being tested

The Periodic Table of Work, our first project, is designed to keep failures alongside every claim. It is a preview; nothing is stored yet.